UNDERESTIMATING KERRY

Andrew Sullivan:

The conventional wisdom in Washington right now is that Kerry is such an awful candidate that he is doomed in the fall. If Bush can stay even after the last three, horrendous weeks - when he has shown that his administration has no real control over even the conduct of its own servicemembers and contractors in Iraq - then Kerry is toast. I'm not so sure. My instinct is that this election will not, in fact, be close. Either Bush will convince people that he is winning the war on terror and turning the economy around and win handsomely, or he won't, and Kerry will win big. Recent history suggests that incumbent presidents either lose badly or win well.

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