Mother Jones: THE UNHAPPY MAJORITY

Beneath the partisan divide, America is discontented and desperate for change. According to a new poll by Mother Jones, nearly two-thirds of Americans think the country is on the wrong track:

The results indicate a startling consensus on the need for change. Asked if the country should "continue in the same direction as the one Bush is headed or a significantly different one," 57 percent of Americans at large, 57 percent of swing state voters, and 67 percent of independents said they want a different course. Although the vast majority of Republicans remain loyal to Bush -- nearly 90 percent say they would support the president over Kerry -- the poll found that 34 percent of moderate Republicans, as well as 24 percent of those who voted for Bush in 2000, now want a change of direction for the country.

A majority of registered voters from across the political spectrum, including many of the President's core voters, said they believe the poor, the middle class, and American workers have lost ground over the past three years, while the wealthy, big corporations, and CEO's have gained.

Perhaps most importantly, independent voters -- a group that regularly affects the outcome of presidential elections -- appear to be distancing themselves from President Bush's conservative Republican base on a wide range of issues. "Their underlying dispositions right now look like they seem to favor Kerry," says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center.

Iraq

The discontent divide is particularly acute on Iraq. Despite the removal of Saddam Hussein, only 39 percent of all respondents identified the Iraqi people as having gained ground over the last three years. The war is the leading concern for Democrats and independent voters alike (44 and 34 percent, respectively), while Republicans cite the state of America's moral values as the most pressing issue (32 percent). Similarly, when asked to choose between two statements on the Iraq war -- "The Iraq war is a good investment in our security" and "The Iraq war is making it harder to meet our needs at home" -- a large majority of Democrats and independents said the latter assessment best matched their own.

Even among Republicans, support for the war is less solid than it may first appear. While 60 percent of all Republicans have positive feelings about the war, only 45 percent of liberal and moderate Republicans say the same. Less than half of moderate Republicans said the war has been a wise investment in our national security. And only 51 percent of moderate Republicans see the Iraqi people as coming out of the last three years as "winners."

The Economy

On the economic front, a significant majority of all respondents said both they and the nation at large were worse off in regards to job security, the availability of good-paying jobs, the gap between wages and expenses, and access to health care.

Despite three massive tax cuts championed by the president, only 29 percent of all respondents said their tax burden was better. And while nearly 60 percent of conservative Republicans said their tax situation had improved, only 38 percent of moderate and liberal Republicans agreed, a number more in line with liberal Democrats (17 percent), conservative Democrats (14 percent), and independents (16 percent).

Furthermore, while 60 percent of conservative Republicans said the middle class has gained under Bush, only 41 percent of more moderate Republicans share that view. Finally, like Democrats and independents, three quarters of moderate Republicans said big corporations have emerged as winners thanks to Bush.

"This is the most dramatic evidence I have seen that the public perceives a Bush administration tilt towards the wealthy and away from middle and lower income Americans," said Benjamin Page, a political scientist at Northwestern University. "If that were true on election day, Bush would be in deep trouble."

The Bush Base

The only people who seem uniformly pleased with the direction of the country are conservative Republicans and devout evangelical Christians, for whom the war remains largely popular, and in whose eyes Iraqis have gained ground. There is significant crossover between the two groups, and evangelicals remain the most committed element of Bush's support: More than 75 percent have warm feelings toward him, versus 25 percent for Kerry.

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