Monday, October 4


Ruy Teixeira has the results of the Zogby poll:

Bush leads Kerry 46-45 percent of nation-wide LV's, with 8 percent undecided, according to the new Zogby International Poll conducted 10/1-3. The poll also found that 59 percent of respondents said Kerry won the first presidential debate, compared to 21 percent for Bush.

As pollster John Zogby noted, "The post convention bounce for Bush is over and his biggest hurdle is among undecided voters who give him a 31 percent positive job performance rating and a 69 percent negative rating. Only 13 percent of undecided voters feel that the president deserves re-election (his lowest yet) while 37 percent feel it is time for someone new."

Let's crank out the old calculator. If 37% of undecided voters feel it's time to elect someone new, then that's at least another 3% likely for Kerry, which would bring him up to 48% compared to Bush's 46%. It's reasonable to expect that Kerry will pick up at least half of the 50% of undecideds whose sentiments for re-elect weren't quoted.

Gallup, LA Times Polls:

Bush leads Kerry 49-47 percent of nation-wide RV's, with 1 percent for Nader, 1 percent other, 1 percent none and 1 percent no opinion, according to a Gallup Poll conducted Oct. 1-3. In addition, 51 percent of respondents said Kerry was "better able to handle the economy," compared to 44 percent for Bush.

John Kerry leads George Bush 49-47 percent in a head-to head match-up among nation-wide RV's who saw the first presidential debate, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll conducted 9/30-10/1. The respondents chose Kerry as the winner of the debate by a 54-15 percent margin.

In addition, 50 percent of respondents in the LA Times Poll agreed that Kerry had "better ideas for strengthening the economy," compared to 37 percent saying the same about Bush. By a margin of 47-44 percent, the respondents said Kerry was "more likely to develop a plan for achieving success in Iraq."

I've been trying like mad to stay away from polls, but right now, I feel like doing a little dance, don't you?

UPDATE: The Washington Post tracking poll, just released, has Bush leading Kerry 51% to 46% among likely voters. Kerry's favorables rose to 47% from 39% before the debate. Bush's favorables remained at 53%. The Post noted that a Pew Center poll gives Bush a 5-point advantage, the same as before the debate.


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