REPUBLICAN POLLSTER SAYS BIG MINORITY VOTE TURNOUT WILL TIP SWING STATES TO KERRY

The worst GOP nightmares are coming true.

But Tony Fabrizio, a Republican who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole's '96 presidential campaign, doesn't have much incentive to game the numbers to hearten anxious Democrats. And if his latest analysis is correct, the only way Bush can win will be if fewer minorities turn out this year than they did in 2000, when the stakes were far lower.

Fabrizio's latest poll of 12 battleground states shows the race dead even, with Bush getting 47.3 percent and Kerry getting 47.1. But a press release for the survey says: "[W]hen the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5 percent and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry's lead expands to 5.2 percent."

"It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign," Fabrizio is quoted saying. "If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry."