Thursday, October 7


The new Zogby poll says, "The presidential debate has lifted John Kerry back to where he was in our battleground analysis before the Republican convention energized the Bush campaign."

The latest Zogby Interactive poll puts Mr. Kerry ahead of President Bush in 13 of the 16 closely contested states -- two more states than the Massachusetts senator led before the debate and the most since August. The latest survey was conducted between last Thursday, after the debate ended, and Tuesday afternoon, before vice-presidential contenders Dick Cheney and John Edwards debated.

Mr. Kerry moved ahead in two states (Ohio and Nevada) and increased his lead in seven others -- though Mr. Kerry's margin over Mr. Bush in Ohio, Arkansas and Florida was negligible -- less than one percentage point. Mr. Bush's lead narrowed in the three states (Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia) that he remains ahead of Mr. Kerry. Overall, seven of Mr. Kerry’s leads are within the margins of error, while all of Mr. Bush’s leads are.

If the results on Election Day matched Zobgy's numbers, Mr. Kerry would win.

Zogby gives Kerry 322 electoral votes, Bush 216, a much wider margin than during the last analysis performed Sept. 20. Zogby issues a disclaimer that these numbers are "just one snapshot" of voter sentiment but nonethless seems confident that most of its state polls are backed up by others with similar results.


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