Wednesday, November 3

Updates: Rational Depression and Pathological Hope

They say in hard times we grow closer to God. I know this is true by experience. God and I may be fixin to get reeeeeal tight. Crossed fingers is not nearly a sufficient enough of a metaphor to describe it. Try folded steel. Hope everyone is as cheery as me! hehe.

Kos is as good a guide as can be found at the moment. I think most everyone knows how things are going. Bush is at 249 electoral votes and Kerry is at 195. It all comes down to Ohio in my opinion and to hear Carville report what his contacts in Ohio are saying Bush will win. He said a lot of people on the ground right now would love to give him good news right now, but none of them are. He sounds completely defeated. Keep in mind there are still around seven hundred thousand votes to be counted in Ohio and most are in Democratic areas. Still, Kerry does not seem to be performing well enough to offset his losses elsewhere. There are also said to be around two-hundred thousand absentee ballots cast in Ohio that may not be counted for days. Absentee ballots are supposed to favor Kerry. How much? Who can tell? My cousin on the Kerry campaign is still cautious so I will be also since he's a smart guy and relatively immune to emotional or premature judgements. Anyway here ya we all go:

Daily Kos :: 269-269

by kos
Wed Nov 3rd, 2004 at 04:05:18 GMT
So far, no big surprises. Like I wrote below, we need surprises to win the presidency.

Ohio is not out of contention, not as long as the urban areas (like Cuyahoga county) fail to report in. My brother, who has been crunching numbers all night (he likes math), makes a persuassive case that Bush will have a 20K lead in Ohio without absentees after all urban precincts report. The absentees would decide the race.

Florida won't be called tonight, not without so many absentee ballots outstanding (1 million). I don't feel good about Florida, but those absentees are mostly from Dem areas according to MSNBC. It's not over.

NH looks ready to go to Kerry. And early Nevada results look good. Same with the rest of the Gore states except for New Mexico.

If we hold the Gore states, which is quite a reasonable assumption, and flip Nevada and New Hampshire, then we have the dreaded 269-269 results.

But Ohio would be the big prize.

Update: Nevermind Florida. It's been called for Bush. Let's hope it's been called prematurely.
General 2004 :: Link & Discuss (229 comments)

Youth did not vote
by kos
Wed Nov 3rd, 2004 at 02:57:19 GMT
MSNBC exit poll indicates that the youth did not vote. The 18-29  bracket voted the same this year as in 2000, while 30-44 group was down.

That's what's killing us.


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