BUSH'S 15% SOLUTION

This interesting article from NPR postulates that the object of Dubya's recent speech at Annapolis was the 15% of Americans who supported the war but disagree with Bush's conduct of it.

This group thinks the war was and is necessary, but wants it conducted differently. Some would like to see more U.S. troops sent in to do the job with a broader range of weapons and tactics. Others would just like fewer U.S. casualties and more signs of visible progress.

This group stands poised between the firmer opponents of the war and the firmer supporters -- those who have never wavered in their commitment to staying the course. These intermediates may not represent more than 15 percent of the country, but that's about the difference between Mr. Bush's approval rating a year ago (right after he won his second term) and now. It also approximates the decline we have seen in support for the war itself in polls taken a year ago and now.

Moreover, if these numbers hold, it's hard to imagine the Republican majorities in Congress escaping serious erosion in the elections of 2006. The prospect of a Democratic takeover in one chamber looms. And if even one chamber suddenly has Democrats running its committees, we will see an explosion of congressional investigations into every aspect of the Bush administration -- beginning with the war in Iraq.

By the same theory, if this same 15-percent group could be lured back to supporting President Bush and the war, the "comeback kid" dynamic could dominate his second term. This would be enormously empowering for Republicans and would practically guarantee their continued control of Congress in the elections of 2006 and beyond.

Tags: Bush, Iraq war