WHAT I EXPECT FROM SOTU COVERAGE

As I think about tonight's great adventure -- watching Dubya tread water and try not to mention the fact that there have been no accomplishments and many disasters by his administration this past year -- I recall the first Bush-Kerry debate. Bush was at his chimpiest, completely clueless, belligerent and unprepared. Kerry was smooth, articulate and statesmanlike. Wow! we said. He scored a knockout! It's unbelievable! W sounded like the complete moron we know him to be!

We were, as compassionate people, almost sorry, and certainly embarrassed, for him.

Then came the after-debate march of the pundits, giving Kerry a slight edge. It was incredible how many journalists and jingoists declared it a draw -- even conservative Joe Scarborough, who was shamed for the president, was astounded.

I'm just cynical enough to expect more of the same tonight. "It wasn't a great success," they'll say, "but the president didn't do himself any harm." Then they'll replay all the applause lines, show Laura in her box, and attack the Democratic response.

Any bets I'm wrong?