Monday, March 31


I heard Joe Scarborough this morning on Morning Joe referring to a Michael Barone article on the Democratic primary race, but I missed the substance and was so busy at work I didn't have time to chase it down. Here it is.

By my count, Clinton has won 14 states with 219 electoral votes (16 states with 263 electoral votes if you include Florida and Michigan) while Obama has won 27 states (I'm counting the District of Columbia as a state, but not the territories) with 202 electoral votes. Eight states with 73 electoral votes have still to vote. In percentage terms, Clinton has won states with 41 percent of the electoral votes (49 percent if you include Florida and Michigan), while Obama has won states with 38 percent of electoral votes. States with 14 percent of the electoral votes have yet to vote.

The Clinton campaign would do even better to use population rather than electoral votes, since smaller states are overrepresented in the Electoral College. By my count, based on the 2007 Census estimates, Clinton's states have 132,214,460 people (160,537,525 if you include Florida and Michigan), and Obama's states have 101,689,480 people. States with 39,394,152 people have yet to vote. In percentage terms this means Clinton's states have 44 percent of the nation's population (53 percent if you include Florida and Michigan) and Obama's states have 34 percent of the nation's population. The yet-to-vote states have 13 percent of the nation's population.

It's an interesting read. But I (and, I venture to guess, most Hillary supporters) don't need this kind of mathnasium. We know the following:

(1) This race is too close to call;
(2) If Clinton can't win the requisite number of delegates before the Convention, neither can Obama;
(3) There are still 10% of Democratic voters that haven't had the chance to cast their vote;
(4) Michigan's and Florida's votes must be counted, either in a revote or as they stand, else Democrats stand to lose both states in the General Election;
(5) If MI and FL votes count, that gives Hillary another boost in the popular vote;
(6) It's just possible that a enough superdelegates are going to recognize that their obligation is to select the most electable candidate in the GE -- and that's Hillary Clinton.

Alegre has a beautiful glimpse at this brilliant, gallant woman of whom we are so very proud. What a president she'll make!

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Anonymous ccp said...

Check this out. This is why I stopped listening to Air America months ago.

Randi Rhodes calls Ferraro and Clinton "fucking whores":

6:38 PM  
Blogger Motherlode said...

Air America was canceled in Dallas about a year ago, and I grieved ... I so missed Randi on my commute home!

Then she started showing up on Lou Dobbs. Lou LOVED her, which bothered me a little. Now that I'm hearing how despicably she's speaking of Hillary, and I'm relieved that I can't listen to it. I'd probably crash the car.

7:38 PM  

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