Saturday, March 8

THE POPULAR VOTE AND CAUCUSES

Talk Left has some interesting statistics.

Do you know that if 8,000 voters come out in Wyoming today to select their 13 delegates that means that 615 Wyomingians will be selecting a delegate to our national convention (8000 divided by 13.) By contrast, when 4.4 million Californians voted in their primary, they selected 370 delegates, which is to say 1 delegate for every 11,892 Californian who voted.

The will of the people? Please never mention that phrase again when discussing the pledged delegate count.


From the thread: "The total vote to total delegates is listed as 8553 Obama to 9289 Clinton." In other words, Clinton has had to garner 736 more votes for every delegate she's gotten than Obama has had to get for every delegate he's earned. Boy, that's some disadvantage.

On the popular vote --

Among self-identified Democrats:

Without Florida and Michigan: Hillary +588,000
With Florida: Hillary +820,000
With Florida and Michigan: Hillary +933,000

On another note, I can't believe we've let another four years go by without fixing the Electoral College.

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4 Comments:

Anonymous bucky said...

Your numbers are completely meaningless. You qualified your drivel with "among self-identified democrats." So you are basically talking about opinion polls, not real numbers. Sorry, but that doesn't work.

According to the actual hard numbers, the people who actually showed up and voted, Obama is ahead.

Currently, according to the popular vote totals at Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Clinton in total votes cast 13,007,968 to 12,415,286 (a margin of 592,682). This total does not include the results from Florida or Michigan. However, it also does not include results from Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine, which have not released popular vote totals.

Take a step back and try to look past the spin from the Clinton campaign.

2:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The popular vote on realpolitics also does not include any votes from caucus states like Washington, Iowa, Maine or Nevada. This equates to a ~107,000 net gain in Obama votes that are currently not being counted by the "popular vote". That added with the 100,000 vote margin in Mississippi primary gives Obama an 800,000 vote lead. Also, to note even if you took caucuses out of the mix (which is crazy) Obama still wins the popular vote among primaries by ~111,000 votes. Bottom line even in California, people in Republica Congressional Districts have more vote power with delegates than those in Dem rich areas and when the opposite was true in Texas Clinton people complained. Chuck Todds analysis in Mid February showed that Hillary has actually benifited more from the "delegate system" than Barack. Look at Alabama where he won in a landslide and barely one the delegate count.

9:38 AM  
Anonymous VoidSeed said...

The actual number of votes cast has no bearing whatsoever when determining the allocation of delegates based on those votes; it's the PROPORTION, hence the term Proportional Allocation.

Suppose, just for the sake of argument, that only 100 people came out to vote in the California primary, Mrs Clinton may get 52, Mr Obama may get 42 (the actual percentages gotten in CA)... So, out of the 370 delegates up for grabs in CA , Clinton : 192, Obama : 155. Roughly equal to their actual delegate allocations, not accounting for 'over-performing' in various congressional districts (I realize this is a major simplification of the process).

The fact that the Democratic Party allocates delegates based on PROPORTIONS, not actual numbers of votes may seem unfair to large states; but, it seems more fair than the 'winner take all' method of the Republican Party, in my opinion.

It's not about numbers of votes, its about PROPORTIONS in those numbers.

7:18 AM  
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7:39 PM  

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