GUILTY BY SUSPICION

Watch the movie.

FLORIDA GOP CANDIDATE FOR GOVERNOR CRIST: GAY OR NOT?

I may have been too cautious in reporting rumors that the GOP nominee for Florida governor was a closeted gay. The independent candidate is charging the same. As far as I can tell, the Dem candidate has not commented on it.

Now I'm the first to say that being a closeted gay is not a disqualification from office. I sympathize tremendously with any gay who feels (and rightfully so) that the revelation of his/her sexual orientation will handicap their professional career and personal relationships. And in Crist's case, he's actually (cautiously) favored gay civil unions, which is as much as some Democrats have, so that's in his favor. But as long as Republicans are the party of gay-bashing, the party aligned with religious conservatives who think gays are abominations, I think voters deserve to know who their candidates are. If a Democratic candidate was a faithless husband, they'd make it an issue, right? (Yes, they have, repeatedly.)

I have a huge family in Florida (I'm a native, obviously) who totally oppose homosexuality in any way, shape or form. So shouldn't they be informed that the guy they support (and they've said that they are voting for Crist) know his sexual orientation?

This whole gay thing repulses me. I am conflicted, "big-time." Am I, by relaying this information, suggesting that gays should only be Democrats, and if not, are vulnerable to "outing"?

I may delete this post, if my conscience tells me to.

AS NEW YORK GOES, SO GOES THE NATION?

E.J. Dionne opines that the state GOP's problems in New York state are the national party's nightmare.

As a result, the entire Democratic ticket, led by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Eliot Spitzer, the party's candidate for governor, is expected by just about everyone to sweep the state. As many as five Upstate Republican congressional seats -- they would constitute a third of the 15 seats that Democrats need to win the House -- are in jeopardy.

"It's 'The Empire State Strikes Back,' " says Democrat Dan Maffei, a former congressional aide who is running a surprisingly strong race against Rep. Jim Walsh, the Republican incumbent, in a district that stretches from Syracuse to the Rochester area.

Maffei sees the immediate trend toward Democrats powered by frustration with President Bush and the Iraq war. But it is also rooted in long-term factors: the economic troubles of many Upstate communities, the area's "libertarian" leanings on cultural issues and the homelessness felt by many moderate Republicans in the face of a national party increasingly dominated by conservatives.

"Bush Republicanism," Maffei says, "is not for them."
...
"The two trends are quite universal," de Blasio says. "There's a growing body of suburbanites who are increasingly concerned about the rightward drift of the Republican Party, and voters very worried about what's happening to real wages." Paul Tokasz, the retiring Democratic majority leader in the state Assembly -- he hails from Cheektowaga, just outside Buffalo -- says the same suburban movement away from the Republicans that is so visible in the New York City area is happening in metropolitan areas across the state.
...
As New York goes, so goes the nation?

From a distant view (Texas), I can't comment with any real knowledge of how New York and the larger northeast United States are leaning politically -- I can only quote those who have such information. But our upstate New Yorker daughter-in-law's family, who live in a small town near Syracuse, are Hillary supporters. They are blue-collar Catholics (their district is heavily Catholic). Her dad is in his mid-seventies; her mom, who is much younger, works part-time to augment their income; and they vote their economic interests -- including a strong Social Security system. They're put off (to say it mildly) by the evangelical religious right. And they're anti-Bush.

It's one of the few things we have in common.

IRRESISTIBLE HASTERT SNARK

"He's not one of these Washington politicans who spews a lot of hot air. He just gets the job done." -- George W. Bush, at a fundraiser for House Speaker Dennis Hastert today.

Let's be fair. Hastert isn't a big media hog (if you were thinking that he looks like another kind of hog, well oops, that was a completely unintended slur), so Bush is correct in saying Denny doesn't "spew a lot of hot air." Judging by his actions and appearance, he keeps his hot air bottled up.

But as for "getting the job done"?

This is the man who's presided over the "do-nothing Congress." The man who replaced the (Republican) head of the House Ethics Committee because he tried to censure Tom DeLay. The man who's led his party to the biggest, most pork-filled budgets any conservative could decry. The man who to profit himself engineered a $200 million government expenditure to raise the value of his land.

What job was he trying to do? And that he got done?

Well, we know some of it. And none of it is good.

TRAGIC ACCIDENT -- YANKEES PITCHER CRASHED INTO NYC HIGH-RISE

New York Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle crashed into a 50-story condominium tower.

BREAKING NEWS: SMALL, MULTI-ENGINE PLANE CRASHES INTO MIDDLE OF HIGH-RISE EAST SIDE NY RESIDENCE

Nothing in print or on-line so far. The cable news networks are reporting that either a helicopter or a small, multi-engine airplane has crashed into the middle of a 20-story residential building on the east side of New York City.

UPDATE: MSNBC has more.

UPDATE II: CNN is behind on coverage.

UPDATE III: MSNBC is reporting that there is an "amazing amount of activity" on the ground. From a woman in the building: "I was looking and heard an explosion [from the Bel Air Building]. I got out on my own, before the firefighters came." The onlooker said there are apartments and doctor's offices in the building.

Reports abound that there are people trapped in the building.

UPDATE IV: Now reporters are saying that the building is a 50-story high-rise.

UPDATE V: MSNBC is saying that it is confirmed that it was a helicopter, not an airplane, that crashed. Authorities, say Rita Crosby, do not believe this is terrorism-related. There are quite a few corporate helipads near the building, and they believe this is just an accident. Wow, now MSNBC says that the FAA believe this was a fixed-wing aircraft, not a helicopter. There are so many conflicting reports, I won't report anything further.

OCTOBER SURPRISES DON'T WIN ELECTIONS

National Journal's Chuck Todd makes a case against October surprises swinging political races.

Big news in the last month does matter, but October stories aren't singularly important. If they were, campaigns wouldn't spend a dollar in any month other than October.

Campaigns are rarely won or lost in October; the decisive moment happens much earlier in the cycle.

October incidents can have an effect on turnout, but they usually do little to add or change the perception of a candidate. A candidate's image is built months earlier.

In the two weeks since the Foley scandal unfolded, I've noticed an interesting pattern in key races: Republicans seeing the biggest drops in support are those who didn't think they were in big trouble three months ago. Now they have little framework with which to define themselves or their opponents in this awful climate.

The most embattled Republicans, many of whom we identified 18 months ago, seem to be weathering "Hurricane Mark" better than expected. The reason: Incumbents in places like Connecticut, Missouri or Pennsylvania have been preparing for what they feared would be a rough 2006 for nearly 18 months.

What this proves is that campaigns are rarely won or lost in October; the decisive moment happens much earlier in the cycle.

CHRIS BELL CAN WIN

As Miss Molly points out, Chris Bell CAN (and should!) win the governor's race in Texas. Why are Texas Democrats so convinced otherwise?

It looks as if Rick Perry, at least, is worried about it.

BUSH'S "AMAZING" PRESS CONFERENCE

Bush is delivering rambling, extremely long-winded responses to the few questions that have been posed so far. He did pause to compliment one reporter's suit: "That's an extremely beautiful suit. I look around, and there's not another one that comes close." Now he's complimenting Suzanne Malveaux on her clothing.

He doesn't think the new report about the number of Iraqi deaths is credible, and "neither does General Casey." He's aware that many innocent Iraqis have died during the war and is "amazed," thinks it's a testament to the Iraqi people's desire for freedom that they're willing to put up with all the violence.

He's still confident that Republicans will maintain control of both houses of Congress. Iraq is hard work. "The American people want to know if we can win and if we have a plan to win in Iraq." He thinks the economy is a plus for Republicans and wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Dems, he says, will "raise taxes on anybody they can." And Americans know that our biggest job is to protect this country from another attack, they know there's an enemy who plots, and there is. British intelligence broke, with our help, a plot to blow up airplanes. The people want to know what we're doing to protect them. Vast majority of Democrats voted against a program that will allow us to interrogate high-value prisoners. I don't question anybody's patriotism, but I do question why they'd vote against giving the front-line fighters the tools they need. Bush then says listen to the enemy, listen to Osama. We have to fight there so we don't have to fight here. We'll maintain control because we're on the right side of the economy and terrorism.

Oh Jeez, more "cut and run" crap. I can't listen to any more of this.

UPDATE: Will Bunch is channeling my Bush anger again.

STUDY SAYS 650,000 IRAQIS DEAD AS RESULT OF WAR

New, controversial report says more than 650,000 Iraqis have died because of the war. Think of it. That's an astounding number. Iraq's entire population is just over 26 million.

Some challenge the methodology behind the study, but reports like this lend it credibility.

I don't know a single family here that hasn't had a relative, neighbor or friend die violently. In places where there's been all-out fighting going on, I've interviewed parents who buried their dead child in the yard because it was too dangerous to go to the morgue.

UPDATE: Will Bunch has more.

WHO'S WAGING WAR ON THE MIDDLE CLASS?

Corporate America has absolute domination of the political process and the legislative process, says Lou Dobbs. Duh.

In his new book War on the Middle Class, Dobbs says he can't take seriously anyone who identifies himself as either a Republican or a Democrat. I understand and agree with much of what he says, but as long as we have only the two choices, it's clear that Dems are still by far the better choice for anyone hoping to see some defense of middle class interests in the Congress.

NORTH KOREA NUKE TEST A BUSH POLICY FAILURE, SAYS FORMER DEFSEC

Former Defense Secretary William Perry:

North Korea's declared nuclear bomb test program will increase the incentives for other nations to go nuclear, will endanger security in the region and could ultimately result in nuclear terrorism. While this test is the culmination of North Korea's long-held aspiration to become a nuclear power, it also demonstrates the total failure of the Bush administration's policy toward that country. For almost six years this policy has been a strange combination of harsh rhetoric and inaction.

FLORIDA GOVERNOR'S RACE: CRIST PARTYING WITH FOLEY?

I have problems with the Wayne Madsen Report because Wayne's sources are almost never identified. However, the rumors in Florida (my home state) about Crist's sexual orientation and behavior are so pervasive that they have to be addressed. When I say that, it makes my stomach churn because as a Christian and a progressive Democrat I deplore homophobia. It is past time, though, I believe, for Republicans to either declare their acceptance of the gays in their midst or cease their gay-bashing policies. In addition, I believe it's relevant for both political parties, who are positioning themselves as "values" proponents to acknowledge that whether same-sex or heterosexual relationships are the subject, promiscuity is not generally approved by voters, and especially "values voters."

I respect any committed relationship, whether heterosexual or same-sex. And I acknowledge that slippages (i.e., unfaithfulness) among both sorts occasionally happen. These episodes should not necessarily disqualify a public servant from service. However, a pattern of such behavior while belaboring an opponent's, is, in my mind, grounds for questioning a candidate's fitness for office. And the hypocrisy of "family values" campaigners who attack their opponents for their tolerance while successfully keeping secret their own sexual peccadillos deserves exposure.

However, according to our Florida sources, the FBI and Justice Department informed the Florida Governor's office, Attorney General Crist, and the Florida AG's Child Protection Cybercrime Unit at least a year ago about Foley's predatory emails and instant messages. WMR was told that Crist's conflict-of-interest in the case stems from Crist's and Foley's involvement in gay sex parties, some of which took place during 2003 in trendy Coconut Grove, Florida.

Informed Florida sources claim that up until now, Crist and Jeb Bush have been able to keep a lid on the once-divorced Crist's life style, touting his conservative Christian credentials, but that the Foley revelations will severely impact the Crist gubernatorial campaign. The links between Foley and Crist are certain to harm Crist with his conservative backers who admire Crist for his anti-gay rights stance. Floridians begin early voting on October 23.

BREAKING FOLEY DEVELOPMENTS

Hastert is taking questions from the press. He's taking credit for the Republicans for a "good" economy. "The facts are the facts," he said, pointing to various economic issues the Republicans intend to tackle in the future.

On Kolbe: All I know is that Congressman Kolbe, I replaced him on the Page Board in 2002 or 2003. We have all these investigations going on. If anyone is found to have withheld or covered up information, they should be gone.

His Staff: I've understood what my staff told me, and from that response I think they've handled it as well as they should. From 20/20 oversight maybe they didn't do everything exactly correctly.

I asked Louis Freeh to investigate, Nancy Pelosi rejected him. We'll continue to try to find someone. What happened didn't happen while the pages were in Washington, it happened after they went home.

Statement from Kolbe in which he says he used to head up the Page Program. In 2000 a former page contacted his office, saying he'd received e-mail from Foley that made him "uncomfortable." Kolbe said he wasn't shown the content and wasn't told they were "sexually explicit." His office turned the issue over to Foley Chief of Staff Fordham and House Clerk Jeff Trandahl. He assumed it was taken care of since the former page never re-contacted his office.

Now Chris Matthews is saying that Speaker Hastert just demonstrated that he is not vouching for his staff. He "threw his staff out there to be judged separately from him," saying "Don't blame me for what they did or didn't do; judge me only on what they told me." Chris suggested that Denny's "20/20 hindsight" comment is giving notice that there might be more to come out. On three different levels, throwing his staff to the hounds, his use of passive voice -- "mistakes were made" -- and trying to provide the distraction of "taxes," traditionally a winning issue for Republicans -- that's Hastert's attempt at damage control.

Tags: Mark Foley, Dennis Hastert

IRAQ WAR LIMITS U.S. OPTIONS ON NORTH KOREA

US has few options in dealing with North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Although President George W. Bush delivered a stern warning to North Korea over the consequences of its nuclear test, analysts say the US has few options but to rely on its international leverage, which has been severely weakened by the war in Iraq.

Critics say the Bush administration blundered in trying to confront North Korea in late 2002 just as it was committing itself to invading Iraq.

“The Bush administration deserves particular criticism,” said Gary Samore, vice-president of the independent Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “They had unrealistic expectations of what they could achieve through pressure. The US ability to coerce North Korea is quite limited, especially in the middle of a war with Iraq.” [Emphasis mine]

Who beside hard-core neocons is left who can plausibly deny that the Iraq war has bled the United States of immense treasury, both human and financial, compromised our international alliances, strengthened our foes, and left us more vulnerable? And that it DIDN'T HAVE TO HAPPEN -- there was no threat to the U.S. from Saddam Hussein. This was a war of choice, with no credible goal or strategy, and executed ineptly.

And it's all due to Bush, Cheney and the Republicans.

Tags: North Korea, Iraq war, Bush Cheney

IRAQ WAR LIMITS U.S. OPTIONS ON NORTH KOREA

US has few options in dealing with North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Although President George W. Bush delivered a stern warning to North Korea over the consequences of its nuclear test, analysts say the US has few options but to rely on its international leverage, which has been severely weakened by the war in Iraq.

Critics say the Bush administration blundered in trying to confront North Korea in late 2002 just as it was committing itself to invading Iraq.

“The Bush administration deserves particular criticism,” said Gary Samore, vice-president of the independent Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “They had unrealistic expectations of what they could achieve through pressure. The US ability to coerce North Korea is quite limited, especially in the middle of a war with Iraq.” [Emphasis mine]

Who beside hard-core neocons is left who can plausibly deny that the Iraq war has bled the United States of immense treasury, both human and financial, compromised our international alliances, strengthened our foes, and left us more vulnerable? And that it DIDN'T HAVE TO HAPPEN -- there was no threat to the U.S. from Saddam Hussein. This was a war of choice, with no credible goal or strategy, and executed ineptly.

And it's all due to Bush, Cheney and the Republicans.

Tags: North Korea, Iraq war, Bush Cheney

AXIS OF EVIL = BUSH, CHENEY, ROVE

As I noted in the previous post, Bush's cowboy rhetoric has come back to haunt us. WaPo:

Nearly five years after President Bush introduced the concept of an "axis of evil" comprising Iraq, Iran and North Korea, the administration has reached a crisis point with each nation: North Korea has claimed it conducted its first nuclear test, Iran refuses to halt its uranium-enrichment program, and Iraq appears to be tipping into a civil war 3 1/2 years after the U.S.-led invasion.

Each problem appears to feed on the others, making the stakes higher and requiring Bush and his advisers to make difficult calculations, analysts and U.S. officials said. The deteriorating situation in Iraq has undermined U.S. diplomatic credibility and limited the administration's military options, making rogue countries increasingly confident that they can act without serious consequences. Iran, meanwhile, will be watching closely the diplomatic fallout from North Korea's apparent test as a clue to how far it might go with its own nuclear program.

Tags: Bush, axis of evil, North Korea, Iraq, Iran

NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR TEST CAN'T COMPETE WITH FOLEYGATE

Frankly, I'm in shock. The mid-and-late-afternoon, early-evening news shows are still dealing with the Foley scandal. Somehow, I thought that the North Korean nuclear test would not only dominate the day's news cycle, but would absolutely bury the Foley story.

It didn't happen.

Now I've suffered through various network news shows, including Chris' Matthews Hardball, and am now watching Scarborough Country, and what do I find? Foley-gate is still dominating the public discourse.

It's obvious to me that this issue is resonating on a much more personal basis, and perhaps as a metaphor for the entire Bush administration's performance.

UPDATE: It appears I was correct.

Americans say that Republican Congressional leaders put their political interests ahead of protecting the safety of teenage pages, and that House leaders knew of Mark Foley’s sexually charged messages to pages well before he was forced to quit Congress, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Tags: Foleygate

MORE BUSH BLUSTER ON NORTH KOREA

So North Korea has called Bush's bluff. I wouldn't suggest that this is not an ominous development, but really, is it any wonder that nations feeling threatened by Dubya's cowboy "axis of evil" rhetoric would fail to take note that the U.S., under Bush, has invaded two non-nuclear nations yet developed a "hands-off" policy towards nuclear-club members such as Pakistan and India?

You'd think that any afficionado of old Western films (and Bush certainly seems to have made a fetish of adopting the tough-guy posture) would have picked up on two of the most popular themes.

There is the quick-draw artist who has realized the fact that his youthful ambition, and ensuing success, have earned him a place as the target for any gunman hoping to establish a reputation. (Think the late-great Glenn Ford in The Fastest Gun Alive.)

Then there is the arrogant, boastful, threatening gunslinger who is always shot dead in the last reel. It is the noble sheriff who only picks up his gun as a last resort, and then walks away from the carnage resolving "never again" that is the hero.

But, no! George W. Bush has somehow convinced himself over the years that a "tough guy" (rhetorically, since he never, ever had to personally face a physical threat), a man-boy who could goad his own father after a drunken car crash, “I hear you’re looking for me. Do you wanna go mano a mano, right here?”) image suits him, and the nation, better than the deliberative policies of his father. Of course, the consequences of his policies, his actions, have not affected him personally. He has no children at risk in Iraq. He will retire in two years to his beloved Texas ranch, where he can clear brush to his heart's content, guarded and served by the Secret Service. He will always have the money to do whatever he pleases. He can die still believing that history will regard our current crises as "a comma" and that he will be assessed as a resolute leader (which is all he cares about).

And you know what? His father and mother are his biggest enablers. Despite what we see and know, you'd better not criticize their darling son to them!

Anybody else longing for the relative peace and prosperity of the Clinton years?

Tags: North Korea, Bush foreign policy

WHO ELSE KNEW?

How is it possible that so many Republicans knew about Mark Foley's dangerous overtures to teenaged Congressional pages and, other than discussing them with Foley, took no action?

A Republican congressman knew of disgraced former representative Mark Foley's inappropriate Internet exchanges as far back as 2000 and personally confronted Foley about his communications.

A spokeswoman for Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.) confirmed yesterday that a former page showed the congressman Internet messages that had made the youth feel uncomfortable with the direction Foley (R-Fla.) was taking their e-mail relationship. Last week, when the Foley matter erupted, a Kolbe staff member suggested to the former page that he take the matter to the clerk of the House, Karen Haas, said Kolbe's press secretary, Korenna Cline.

Tags: Mark Foley, Jim Kolbe

BREACH OF CONTRACT

Rahm Emanuel just scored a huge hit (in my book) in his appearance on This Week with George S. He went through the promises of the 1994 Newt Gingrich-Congressional Republican "Contract With America" and absolutely REAMED the GOP on their failure to keep faith with their promises.

"You pledged to change Washington," he said, "but you came to Washington and it changed you."

Can't wait for the transcript.

ABC has more.

Tags: Rahm Emanuel, GOP Contract With America

THE IRAQ WAR IS TOAST, POLITICALLY

Fareed Zakaria says it's time to admit that the U.S. experiment in Iraq has failed.

There is really no functioning government south of Kurdistan, only power vacuums that have been filled by factions, militias and strongmen. It is time to call an end to the tests, the six-month trials, the waiting and watching, and to recognize that the Iraqi government has failed. It is also time to face the terrible reality that America's mission in Iraq has substantially failed.

On This Week with George S., George Will just said, "What can 140,000 American troops do in Iraq now that 40,000 troops can't do?"

Tags: Iraq war

BOB WOODWARD DEFENDS HIS BOOK

Bob Woodward is telling Tim Russert that Dick Cheney called him to complain about his new book, State of Denial. According to Bobo, Cheney cursed (specifically, he said, "Bulls**t") and hung up on him.

Apparently, Woodward's been working on a book about the Gerald Ford administration and interviewed a number of prominent Republicans on the record for that project -- but then used their quotes in State of Denial. They're now protesting that use, but as Woodward says, "On the record is ON THE RECORD."

His reporting of the Condi/Tenet meeting, which Tenet has challenged? Woodward says that in the five years since 9/11, he's never heard anything quite so extraordinary as that George Tenet called from his car to say he had to meet with her about an imminent threat.

What's the most important fact in the book? Russert asks Woodward.

"It's what Carl Bernstein and I used to call, 'the best obtainable truth,'" Woodward replied.

BUSH APPROVAL RATING AT 33%

A new Newsweek poll not only has Bush at 33%, an all-time low, but also reports American voters as favoring Democrats on the war on terror and moral values, traditionally winning issues for the Republicans.

Democrats now outdistance Republicans on every single issue that could decide voters’ choices come Nov. 7. In addition to winning—for the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll—on the question of which party is more trusted to fight the war on terror (44 to 37 percent) and moral values (42 percent to 36 percent), the Democrats now inspire more trust than the GOP on handling Iraq (47 to 34); the economy (53 to 31); health care (57 to 24); federal spending and the deficit (53 to 29); gas and oil prices (56 to 23); and immigration (43 to 34).

And even if the Republicans manage to bail out their ship before the midterms, they’ll have a hard time matching their one-time strengths to voters’ priorities. A third of registered voters, 33 percent, say the single most important issue that will decide their vote will be Iraq; compare to 20 percent who say the economy and only 12 percent who say terrorism, which ties with health care.

Tags: Newsweek poll